Matthew, currently a Category 4 (major) hurricane, will continue to move westward across the central Caribbean Sea before making an abrupt turn to the north later this weekend.

That will put the major hurricane on a path to track over or dangerously close to Jamaica or Haiti before threatening to make a direct hit on eastern Cuba.

“There is a potential for Matthew to bring devastating winds, a deadly storm surge and flooding rain to parts of Jamaica, far western Haiti and eastern Cuba,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Mike Doll said.

After moving away from the Caribbean, Matthew threatens to approach the US East Coast during the middle and latter half of next week.

Jump to: Matthew to remain a major hurricane into Monday | Jamaica, eastern Cuba, western Haiti brace for life-threatening impacts | Matthew to barrel into the Bahamas early next week | Latest statistics on Major Hurricane Matthew

Matthew to remain a major hurricane into Monday

Matthew is the second major hurricane of the season, following Gaston from August. On Friday night, Matthew briefly became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

While Matthew is no longer a Category 5 hurricane and could weaken to a Category 3 hurricane prior to reaching land, residents in its path should not let their guard down.

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“If Matthew weakens to a Category 3 hurricane at any point into Monday, it could strengthen back to a Category 4 hurricane on its approach toward Jamaica,” Doll said.

Rough seas, dangerous surf, stiff winds and gusty, drenching squalls will impact Aruba, Curacao and the northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia into Saturday afternoon.

As Matthew turns to the north, hurricane conditions will ramp up across Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba on Sunday night into Monday night before eventually spreading into the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Jamaica, eastern Cuba, western Haiti brace for life-threatening impacts

How quickly Matthew turns to the north will determine whether the worst of the impacts track closer to Jamaica or Haiti on Monday.

A slower turn to the north will take Matthew farther west toward Jamaica, while a faster turn to the north will take the storm farther east toward Haiti, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Ed Vallee.

Latest indications take the center of Matthew closer to Jamaica than Haiti.

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“Based on the current forecast, most structures across eastern Jamaica and eastern Cuba will sustain some damage from the wind and weaker structures could be destroyed,” Doll said.

There will be sustained damaging winds in excess of 80 mph (130 km/h) with gusts over 100 mph (160 km/h). Widespread power outages, tree damage and flooding can also be expected.

Residents and vacationers across the region need to heed all warnings and make sure to stock up on enough bottled water and non-perishable food items in case the power is out for days. Loose outdoor items should be secured or brought inside to prevent them from becoming deadly projectiles.

“Widespread rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches (250 to 400 mm) can be expected across eastern Jamaica, western Haiti and eastern Cuba,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said, adding that even higher amounts are possible.

Across the mountainous terrain, rainfall amounts over 20 inches (500 mm) are likely, Miller said. Life-threatening landslides will result.

A severe inundating storm surge will accompany the rain and wind, threatening to further flood coastal communities.

“A storm surge of 15 feet (4.5 meters) or more is expected along the eastern coast of Jamaica and near and to the east of where Matthew makes landfall along the southern coast of eastern Cuba,” Doll said.

Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo Bay could bear the brunt of the life-threatening impacts of Matthew.

“Conditions will become bad in Kingston, Jamaica, but the city should escape the worst impacts,” Miller said. “I do not expect a significant storm surge based on our track, but there can still be sustained winds to 80 mph (130 km/h), gusts to 100 mph (160 km/h) and rain amounts of 5-10 inches (120-250 mm).”

Matthew should also track far enough to the west for impacts in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, to be limited to locally heavy rain and gusty winds, according to Miller.

Even well away from the storm, flooding rain could fall westward to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

“Tropical moisture from Matthew will enhance squalls across the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, including in Santo Domingo,” Miller said. “Three to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm) of rain and localized flooding will be possible.”

Weather conditions and seas will gradually subside from south to north across the Caribbean toward the middle of next week as Matthew tracks northward through the Bahamas.

All cruise ships, fishing vessels and shipping interests should avoid the area until Matthew moves away.

Matthew to barrel into the Bahamas early next week

The mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba should weaken Matthew below major hurricane status before reaching the Bahamas. However, Matthew will continue to pose hazards to lives and property across the island nation by unleashing damaging winds, flooding rain, dangerous seas and coastal flooding on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Matthew already turned deadly as it tracked through the Windward Islands earlier in the week.

Matthew gained strength over St. Vincent with heavy gusts and several inches of rain, killing one person. A 16-year-old boy died when a boulder dislodged from the storm and crushed him against a house on Wednesday night, St. Lucia News Online reported.

Content contributed by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

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